Roy Moore
Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore testifies during his ethics trial before the Alabama Court of the Judiciary at the Alabama Judicial Building in Montgomery, Ala., on Wednesday Sept. 28, 2016. (Mickey Welsh/Montgomery Advertiser via AP, Pool)
(Mickey Welsh)
The Alabama Court of the Judiciary may have dealt a professional blow to Roy Moore the judge by suspending him without pay for the remainder of his term, but the body's decision is also very likely a political win for Moore's potential candidacy for governor.
"They're making him out to be a martyr," a Republican strategist who has worked for a number of Alabama political candidates told AL.com. "To the average voter, especially the average Republican primary voter, he's fighting for an issue they believe in in traditional marriage and I think this helps him. I think it's going to make him stronger if he does run for governor, believe it or not."
Moore, the now suspended Alabama Supreme Court chief justice, was served the penalty by the court for what it described as his defiance in ordering probate judges not to grant marriage licenses to same-sex couples even after the U.S. Supreme Court legalized gay marriage.
By being suspended, Moore can say that he stuck to his convictions - a quality that appeals to voters in a political climate that favors authenticity over establishment politicians. And by being once again thrust into the national spotlight, Moore's already sky-high name recognition will only grow.
"This could be the beginning of the gubernatorial 2018 race," said Natalie Davis, a political science professor at Birmingham-Southern College. "If you're looking for the elected official or political figure in the state who has the most favorable ratings, it's Roy Moore. So he starts off even with this hanging over him in a pretty good position if he seeks the governorship."
A July poll conducted on behalf of the Alabama Forestry Association showed Moore leading the field of potential gubernatorial candidates with about 28 percent support; Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange polled second with about 19 percent.
"He's positioned to have a pretty good leg up on the competition," Davis said. "I think he knows that [the commission's decision] helps him, but also he's committed to these kinds of positions. He hasn't deviated. He's not a flip-flop. That is appealing to the Alabama electorate. Alabamians do not want to be told what to do. In a way, that's how they've been governed for many years."
While Friday's decision by the court benefits Moore in the near-term, the largest obstacle to a potential gubernatorial campaign is how Moore can stay in the spotlight a year from now, when candidates can start to solicit donors for cash, according to Brent Buchanan, a Republican strategist and managing partner at Cygnal, a Montgomery-based political consulting firm.
"The worst thing that could happen for Roy Moore is that people stop talking about him," Buchanan said. "If he's going to run for higher office, he's going to have to stay relevant for the next 10 months, and that's going to be challenging being suspended but not kicked off" the bench.
Moore has run for governor before, primarying then-Gov. Bob Riley in 2006 and placing fourth in the 2010 gubernatorial primary. At the time of the 2006 race, Moore was a national figure following his removal as chief justice for refusing to take down a statue of the Ten Commandments from the state judicial building.
In the 2006 campaign, Riley said he agreed with Moore's stance but acknowledged that the law had to be followed and ran on other issues. And while voters may also have sided with Moore, the job of governor is to uphold the law.
"Back then, in terms of the Ten commandments issue, they could separate out the fact that he ought to follow the law, all of that," Davis said. "But the difference in that race was Riley was a very compelling candidate, and so we'll just have to see how a campaign, how the 2018 race would be the kind of race where the cast of characters would have a more compelling candidate."
Potential opponents of Moore may use that playbook to try to defeat him in a gubernatorial primary, where Republican voters and candidates share the same stance on gay marriage.
Furthermore, Moore may have a built-in floor with evangelical voters because of his platform on social issues, but it may also limit his ceiling, according to the Republican strategist.
"I think there are other issues that are more important for them," the strategist said of primary voters. "Look at the Alabama Republican primary for president. They overwhelmingly voted for a three-times married casino owner, so they're also looking at other issues."