Harris vs. Trump who will win? Latest poll shows new leader in presidential race

FILE - Vice President Kamala Harris embraces President Joe Biden after a speech on healthcare in Raleigh, N.C., March. 26, 2024. President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race for the White House on Sunday, July 21, ending his bid for reelection following a disastrous debate with Donald Trump that raised doubts about his fitness for office just four months before the election. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley, File)

The latest presidential poll – one of the first since President Joe Biden exited the race – shows a new leader.

Vice President Kamala Harris opened with a 2 percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Harris, who has secured enough delegates to win the official nomination at next month’s Democratic convention, polled at 44% compared to Trump’s 42% among registered voters. Both of the figures are within the poll’s margin of error meaning it’s a statistical tie, but do reflect a change from one week ago when Trump was leading Biden by 2 percentage points.

In a three-way race that included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris held a slight lead over Trump, 42% to 38% compared to 8% for Kennedy Jr.

People overwhelmingly support Biden exiting the race

Biden’s exit was popular, however, with 78% - including 86% of Democrats and 79% of independents – supporting him leaving the presidential race. Fifty-seven percent of Americans support Biden serving out the rest of his term as president, however, including 62% of registered voters, 88% of Democrats and 57% of independents. Only 35% of Republicans think Biden should finish out his term.

Forty-eight percent support Harris as the Democratic nominee, including 89% of Democrats. Harris has also seen her favorability numbers improve since Biden’s exit, improving from 39% in a mid-July poll to 44% now.

The Ipsos poll was conducted July 22-23 among 1,241 adults, including 1,018 registered voters, 426 Democrats, 376 Republicans and 341 independents.

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