Goodman: Who are the SEC’s playoff contenders?

This is an opinion column.

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One camera and reporter after another lined up to document the moment when Oklahoma coach Brent Venables made his way to the microphone here at SEC Media Days on Tuesday.

It was a historic day for the league, and OU proudly looked the part of a bona fide member of the Southeastern Conference. From Day 1, the Sooners and all of their passionate fans belonged in the SEC.

But does that mean these newbies have even the slightest hope of making the College Football Playoff as a first-year member of the toughest league in sports?

Let me ask that another way.

Does a covered wagon on the Plains stand a chance against a tornado? Maybe so, but the SEC’s new wagon riders need to get a little lucky against a diabolically twisted schedule.

The College Football Playoff is expanding from four to 12 teams this season. The SEC would love to land four teams in the inaugural field. To help the league’s chances of maximizing its spots in the CFP, the SEC decided to do away with the conference’s two-division format and go with a single, 16-team model.

The two teams with the best records at the end of the season will meet in the SEC championship game in Atlanta. Presumably, both of those teams will also make the national playoff. The SEC is then hoping that teams three and four will also receive at-large bids.

There are contenders and pretenders here at SEC Media Days. SEC teams with two-losses could potentially make the playoffs, but getting to 11 wins in a 16-team SEC is going to be one of the most difficult challenges in the history of college football.

Teams that look like pretenders going into fall camp: Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.

For No.9 of my 10 Burning Questions for a college football offseason of change, who are the serious contenders for the 12-team playoff out of the new-look SEC?

TENNESSEE

Record prediction: 10-2

Playoff prediction: Out

Toughest tests: at Oklahoma, vs. Alabama, at Georgia

How the Volunteers make the playoffs: New quarterback Nico Iamaleava lights up the Sooners to begin SEC play and the Vols never look back. Rival Florida is down this season and Tennessee gets Alabama at Neyland.

Why the Volunteers won’t make the playoffs: Assuming Tennessee loses to Georgia, a loss at home to either Oklahoma or Alabama could be enough to keep the Vols out of the playoffs. Tennessee’s first SEC game of the season is at OU on Sept.21 and it’s going to be a scene. The Third Saturday in October could be a play-in game.

MISSOURI

Record prediction: 11-1

Playoff prediction: In

Toughest tests: at Texas A&M, at Alabama, vs. Oklahoma

How the Tigers make the playoffs: The schedule is a favorable one by new-age SEC standards. Quarterback Brady Cook has the experience to win at Kyle Field and Mizzou has the speed to match up with the Aggies. There’s no way I’m predicting Missouri to walk into Bryant-Denny and win a game, but taking down rival OU in Columbia isn’t farfetched.

Why the Tigers won’t make the playoffs: With an off week before its trip to Mizzou, Auburn could play the spoiler on Oct.19.

OLE MISS

Record prediction: 11-1

Playoff prediction: In

Toughest tests: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Georgia

How the Rebels make the playoffs: Greg Sankey must really want Lane Kiffin in the first 12-team playoff. Why else would Alabama be left off the schedule? Ole Miss returns 20 starters and rival LSU can’t hang around offensively this season.

Why the Rebels won’t make the playoffs: Former Ole Miss star running back Quinshon Judkins is now at Ohio State. That could hurt in big games.

10 BURNING QUESTIONS

Question 1: Will Isaiah Bond regret leaving Alabama for Texas?

Question 2: What does Nick Saban really think about Alabama?

Question 3: Where is the hottest seat in college football?

Question 4: Is Oklahoma ready for the SEC?

Question 5: Why is Horns Down so satisfying?

Question 6: Why are there no Black coaches in the SEC?

Question 7: Did Saban leave at the perfect time for Alabama?

Question 8: Who’s the biggest pretender in the SEC?

ALABAMA

Record prediction: 10-2

Playoff prediction: Out

Toughest tests: at Wisconsin, vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, vs. Mizzou, at LSU, at Oklahoma

How the Crimson Tide makes the playoffs: The off weeks before Georgia and LSU are big helps.

Why the Crimson Tide won’t make the playoffs: UA quarterback Jalen Milroe has a tendency to make critical mistakes in big moments of close games. It’s hard to ignore and the Tide is facing some tough road tests in 2024.

TEXAS

Record prediction: 10-2

Playoff prediction: In

Toughest tests: at Michigan, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Georgia, at Texas A&M

How the Longhorns make the playoffs: Quarterback Quinn Ewers lights up Michigan in Week 2 and the Longhorns avoid a revenge scenario against Alabama.

Why the Longhorns won’t make the playoffs: Forget the playoff-type games against Michigan and Georgia for a moment. Victories in rivalry games against OU and A&M will be tough and don’t forget about Arkansas in Fayetteville.

GEORGIA

Record prediction: 11-1

Playoff prediction: In

Toughest tests: vs. Clemson, at Alabama, vs. Auburn, at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee

How the Bulldogs make the playoffs: Second-year starter Carson Beck could be the best quarterback in the country. Pair him with Florida running back transfer Travis Etienne, and a path to a perfect record isn’t out of the question.

Why the Bulldogs won’t make the playoffs: It’s a brutal schedule when a rivalry game against Florida isn’t even listed among the Bulldogs’ toughest tests.

BE HEARD

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Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for the Alabama Media Group, and author of the book “We Want Bama: A Season of Hope and the Making of Nick Saban’s Ultimate Team.”